The European e-cigarette market could be worth more than $2bn, according to a new report from ECigIntelligence.
Basing its analysis on an EU nicotine-using population of 110m, along with data for penetration and average spend, the report says that in 2013 total European e-cigarette sales were in the range of €1bn-1.6bn ($1.4bn-2.25bn).
It identifies three distinct types of e-cigarette market in Europe. In the mature British and German markets, penetration among the nicotine-using population is approaching 20%, while in a second tier of France, Italy and Poland it is around 5-10%. A third tier consists of the rest of the EU, with similar levels of penetration but a much lower total spend.
“In summary, we believe that the UK and German markets may be larger than believed, while the Spanish and possibly French may be smaller than most estimates,” the report says.
It predicts that “2014 will see a maturing of individual markets at differing rates, and even shrinkage in certain areas”.
The report, entitled E-Cigarettes in Europe: Regulatory and Market Impacts of the EU Tobacco Products Directive, is published this week and available exclusively from ECigIntelligence at £895 (€1080, $1500).
What This Means: While the ECigIntelligence report acknowledges that the fragmentary nature of the European market makes a precise gauging difficult, even the low end of its estimate is well ahead of the analyst consensus of €750m ($1bn) for 2013. As the industry gears up to deal with the impact of the new Tobacco Products Directive, there is more at stake than expected.
– Barnaby Page ECigIntelligence staff