Market report: China – will China Tobacco step in and take control?

Table of contents

1. Executive summary
2. Market background
   1. State tobacco monopoly has been a powerful barrier to anti-smoking measures
   2. 2013 report a turning point for tobacco regulation in China
   3. Government debates additional measures
   4. CNTC intensifies compliance checks
   5. Does the CPC’s new-found anti-smoking zeal come right from the top?
   6. Rising incidence of lung cancer a cause for concern
   7. The elephant in the room
   8. Split between dual- and single-usage is crucial
   9. Industry seeks to burnish its image to forestall regulation
3. Market size
   1. Chart: Adult vaping population, Chian
   2. Less than 0.1% of Chinese adults are daily e-cig users
   3. Huge potential for sales growth and harm reduction
   4. Chart: Market size value, China
   5. COVID-19 hurts 2020 sales growth
      1. Chart: Absolute growth in Chinese value sales
      2. Chart: Annual growth in market size (actual and forecast)
4.  Form factors
   1. Rechargeable/pod systems dominant
      1. Chart: Consumer segmentation, China
      2. Chart: E-cigarette annual sales split in China, 2020
5. Channels
   1. 2019 starts badly for e-cig manufacturers, and ends worse
   2. Crackdown on vending machine sales of e-cigs may be in prospect
   3. Online sales are down but not quite out
      1. Chart: Distribution channel split, China
   4. Traditional retail surges ahead of vape stores
   5. Open and closed systems are sold through different types of stores
   6. E-cig brands scramble to open franchise stores
6. Competitive landscape
   1. Relx
   2. Smaller players
7. Outlook
   1. CNT launches a heat-not-burn brand – but not in China
   2. Prevalence of e-cig usage among Chinese youth
   3. Regulation