Market report: China – will China Tobacco step in and take control?

While China is the supplier of e-cigarettes to the world, the domestic vapour market is small, slow-growing – and faces the uncertainty of future regulation, or even a total takeover, by the state tobacco monopoly ...
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Table of contents

  1. Executive summary
  2. Market background
    1. State tobacco monopoly has been a powerful barrier to anti-smoking measures
    2. 2013 report a turning point for tobacco regulation in China
    3. Government debates additional measures
    4. CNTC intensifies compliance checks
    5. Does the CPC’s new-found anti-smoking zeal come right from the top?
    6. Rising incidence of lung cancer a cause for concern
    7. The elephant in the room
    8. Split between dual- and single-usage is crucial
    9. Industry seeks to burnish its image to forestall regulation
  3. Market size
    1. Chart: Adult vaping population, Chian
    2. Less than 0.1% of Chinese adults are daily e-cig users
    3. Huge potential for sales growth and harm reduction
    4. Chart: Market size value, China
    5. COVID-19 hurts 2020 sales growth
      1. Chart: Absolute growth in Chinese value sales
      2. Chart: Annual growth in market size (actual and forecast)
  4.  Form factors
    1. Rechargeable/pod systems dominant
      1. Chart: Consumer segmentation, China
      2. Chart: E-cigarette annual sales split in China, 2020
  5. Channels
    1. 2019 starts badly for e-cig manufacturers, and ends worse
    2. Crackdown on vending machine sales of e-cigs may be in prospect
    3. Online sales are down but not quite out
      1. Chart: Distribution channel split, China
    4. Traditional retail surges ahead of vape stores
    5. Open and closed systems are sold through different types of stores
    6. E-cig brands scramble to open franchise stores
  6. Competitive landscape
    1. Relx
    2. Smaller players
  7. Outlook
    1. CNT launches a heat-not-burn brand – but not in China
    2. Prevalence of e-cig usage among Chinese youth
    3. Regulation

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