Report: European e-cig market could be worth more than $2bn

The European e-cigarette market could be worth more than $2bn, according to a new report from ECigIntelligence.

Basing its analysis on an EU nicotine-using population of 110m, along with data for penetration and average spend, the report says that in 2013 total European e-cigarette sales were in the range of €1bn-1.6bn ($1.4bn-2.25bn).

It identifies three distinct types of e-cigarette market in Europe. In the mature British and German markets, penetration among the nicotine-using population is approaching 20%, while in a second tier of France, Italy and Poland it is around 5-10%. A third tier consists of the rest of the EU, with similar levels of penetration but a much lower total spend.

“In summary, we believe that the UK and German markets may be larger than believed, while the Spanish and possibly French may be smaller than most estimates,” the report says.

It predicts that “2014 will see a maturing of individual markets at differing rates, and even shrinkage in certain areas”.

The report, entitled E-Cigarettes in Europe: Regulatory and Market Impacts of the EU Tobacco Products Directive, is published this week and available exclusively from ECigIntelligence at £895 (€1080, $1500).

What This Means: While the ECigIntelligence report acknowledges that the fragmentary nature of the European market makes a precise gauging difficult, even the low end of its estimate is well ahead of the analyst consensus of €750m ($1bn) for 2013. As the industry gears up to deal with the impact of the new Tobacco Products Directive, there is more at stake than expected.

– Barnaby Page ECigIntelligence staff

Photo: GR8DAN/Wikimedia

Barnaby Page

Editorial director

Before joining ECigIntelligence in early 2014 as one of its first employees, Barnaby had a 30-year career as a reporter and editor for newspapers, magazines and online services, working in Canada, the US and the Middle East as well as his current British location. He has edited publications covering fields including technology and the advertising industry, and was launch editor of the first large daily online news service in the British regional media. Barnaby also writes on classical music and film for a number of publications. Barnaby manages the editorial and reporting teams and works closely with the analyst teams, to ensure that all content meets high standards of quality and relevance. He also writes for the site occasionally, mostly on science-related issues, and is a member of the Association of British Science Writers.